Iowa Caucus results begin to shape presidential campaign picture
Kim Chaudoin | 615.966.6494 |
After months of campaigning, media speculation and heated debate, the rubber began to meet the road on Monday, Feb. 1, as the results of the Iowa Caucus started to give shape to the 2016 presidential campaign season.
In the Republican Caucus, candidate Ted Cruz won with 27.7 percent of the vote and earned eight delegates. Donald Trump received 24.3 percent of the Republican vote and seven delegates while Marco Rubio had 23.1 percent of the vote and garnered seven delegates. Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush rounded out the Republican vote and delegate earners in the caucus.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were neck-in-neck in the Democratic Caucus with Clinton receiving 699 votes to Sanders’ 695. Clinton left Iowa with 22 delegates and Sanders with 21.
The Iowa Caucus is traditionally the first major electoral event in the nominating process for the presidential election season. It has also proven to be an indicator of which candidates eventually earn the Democratic and Republican nominations for president. Likewise, it often also serves as an indicator of which candidates are likely to withdraw from the race, says Marc Schwerdt, assistant professor of political science in Lipscomb's Department of History, Politics and Philosophy housed in the College of Liberal Arts & Sciences.
“What we started to see Monday night is the rubber beginning to meet the road,” says Schwerdt. “Now we start to see what the voters really think about the candidates instead of speculating with all of the public opinion polls that we have seen over the last few months.”
Schwerdt, who has worked on two congressional campaigns and teaches courses related to campaigns and elections, says the caucus results provide several indicators about the candidates and their campaigns.
“The polls that we have seen up to this point have had Donald Trump in the lead among Republican candidates,” says Schwerdt. “But Cruz won the Republican Caucus. He probably didn’t win by the margin he thought he might have, but he needed Iowa more than Trump.”
Rubio’s strong showing was a good sign for the candidate, says Schwerdt.
“Rubio has every reason to be ecstatic,” he says. “He fared much better than the polls indicated that he would. Likewise, Trump did not do as well as the polls indicated he would. The Republicans have a wide-open race right now. The notion of ‘crowning Trump’ is premature. What we saw in Iowa was that Trump couldn’t get his people to turn out. He couldn’t get his people out to vote.”
The close race among the Democratic candidates may not necessarily be an indicator of future primaries, including those in New Hampshire on Feb. 9 and in Nevada and South Carolina later this month.
“The ‘Sanders Effect’ is temporary,” speculates Schwerdt. “His first real test is going to be South Carolina. We will start to see there what holdover there will be of the ‘Clinton Mystique,’ too. Clinton should fare well in South Carolina and Nevada, as she has a strong connection to minorities. Sanders resonates well with the working class, but he doesn’t really have any resonance in the South except with college students. The next few states don’t bode well for him. “
For the Republicans, Schwerdt says the next few primaries will be crucial.
“Cruz and Rubio are fighting for a place like South Carolina,” he says. “That’s their next big opportunity. Nevada is a bit more of a mystery, and it’s more difficult to predict the outcome. Trump will have to be successful in getting his supporters out to vote.”
Schwerdt says Republican candidate Chris Christie is “betting on doing well in New Hampshire” while Ban Carson is “relying on a strong showing in South Carolina.”
“The field may narrow down if some of the candidates don’t make headway in New Hampshire and South Carolina,” he says. “But I would expect them all to make it through New Hampshire. One or two Republican candidates may drop out, but most will try to make it to Super Tuesday.”
Super Tuesday is the day during a presidential election year when the greatest number of states hold primary elections to select delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions at which each party’s candidate is officially nominated. More delegates can be won on Super Tuesday than on any other single day of the primaries. On March 1, primaries will be held in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Texas, Vermont and Virginia with caucuses in Alaska (R), America Samoa (D), Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota (R) and Wyoming (R) with hundreds of delegates up for grabs.
Overall Schwerdt says he sees class and education playing “a much larger role than religion” as voters evaluate candidates.
“Religion just isn’t as relevant a factor this time around,” he says. “We are finding ourselves more exposed and vulnerable to issues around the world, things we find most unsettling such as the Zika virus, security, terrorism and the like. Big business also doesn’t see themselves tied to just an American audience anymore with many having manufacturing and distribution interests globally. So foreign relations and policy are definitely of great interest to these voters.”
Schwerdt says another interesting phenomenon is also playing a role during the campaign season.
“There is a preference cascade at work,” Schwerdt says. “When people were upset with their political parties, it used to be contained within those parties. But we are seeing people say they want something different. Sanders is trying to get the Democratic nomination, but he isn’t a registered Democrat. Trump wants the Replubican nod, but he hasn’t voted Republican since the 1980s. Both parties are being challenged in several ways like never before. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next few months.”
Primaries will continue on through June 14 followed by the Republican National Convention in Cleveland July 18-21 and the Democratic National Convention the week of July 25 in Philadelphia. The general election will take place Nov. 8.